Niseko Rebounding Strongly Following Busy Start To Winter

The current season in Niseko is shaping up to rival the boom times right before the outbreak of Covid in terms of both sales volume and visitorship, according to multiple people in the real estate and hospitality industries.

But lingering effects of the pandemic have altered visitor and investor demographics, with the impact varied across different services.

In real estate, the general feeling is that sales this season will meet or even slightly exceed 2019 numbers, but agents cautioned that how a season is really shaping up isn’t clear till around mid January.

Still, early indications are promising. H2 Christie’s International Real Estate Sales Director Paul Butkovich spoke to a sharp sales uptick that kicked off just before the season opened, partially driven by the generous snowfalls since the beginning of December.

Despite this, Butkovich said that physical visits by potential investors “will likely be down” due to lingering worldwide airline and border issues.

“But the flip side is we expect to have an extended season this year and I suspect March and possibly April will be busier than usual,” Butkovich said.

Visitor demographics – who is coming

The Park Hyatt Niseko Hanazono opened in January of 2020 and, after a promising several weeks, soon faced cancellations due to Covid.

Park Hyatt Niseko Hanazono Director of Sales and Marketing Ronald Nomura said that, all things considered, last year’s season “wasn’t bad but was very short”, referring to the completely domestic makeup of the guests and how Japanese visitors tend to stay for shorter time periods than foreigners.

According to Nomura san, the Park Hyatt Niseko’s guests this year are about half Japanese, with the second largest group being Americans.

Photo: Park Hyatt Niseko Hanazono

Visitor demographics – who is missing

One change in visitorship this season is a sharp decrease in European travelers as reduced air capacity has pushed up prices and Europe, being further away from Hokkaido than much of America, is disproportionately affected.

The other missing demographic are the Chinese, due to increasing Covid cases after the seeming abandonment of the zero-Covid policy and a lack of clarity about what the Beijing may do next.

“The Chinese that we get aren’t residents of China, they are living outside of China. We expect that when they [China] fully open we’ll get a lot more guests from China, especially over the summer,” said Nomura san.

Lodge owner and restaurateur Toshio Nishimura opened his accommodation, Lodge TONY and next door restaurant, Niseko Bi-on, in 2017.

Lodge Tony; Mt Yotei | Photos: Toshio Nishimura

Nishimura san has been pleased with bookings and reservations so far this season, reporting that the change in visitor demographics has had a limited impact on the type of guests he receives.

“Usually, tourists from mainland China tend to move in groups,” said Nishimura san, underscoring their preference for multi-unit accommodations.

Cautious hope, lingering uncertainty

Niseko Property Director Grant Mitchell said the the two main factors driving the market are the low yen and pent up demand due to covid.

“All indications are it’s going to be a very busy sales winter,” said Grant.

But no one appeared ready to tear down the goal post just yet.

While acknowledging that his Lodge TONY bookings so far paralleled the immediate pre-Covid years, Nishimura san expressed caution, citing the ongoing disruptions in international travel, a sentiment that was shared across the accommodation and real estate community.

“There still is a general uncertainty about the world in general and what the trend is in Niseko. Some people are just waiting to see what happens,” said Mitchell.

“If this goes gangbusters they’ll be jumping on the wagon.”

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