NISEKO NEWS
By Thomas Shomaker
We are currently in the middle of an El Niño season, so what does that mean for Niseko snowfall?
El Niño is an irregularly occurring weather phenomenon in which the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal over an extended period, which the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) defines as at least six consecutive months.
El Niño typically produces elevated temperatures and reduced snowfall for northern Japan, and last December when JMA published its three month forecast covering January, February and March of 2024, it indeed predicted less-than-normal winter precipitation for northern Honshu and about half of Hokkaido, including Niseko.
But while snowfalls are generally reduced in the Niseko area during El Niño occurrences, the effect is not as drastic as in many other parts of Japan or the world where El Niño can be a serious concern for ski resorts.
January – March 2024 Snow Forecast, Japan Meteorological Agency
From 2000 through 2023 there were five El Niño seasons (one of which is still ongoing) that impacted, either in whole or in part, eight years.
According to JMA data from its Kutchan WMO Station In Kutchan Town proper, the average annual snowfall of the eight years impacted by El Niño was 963.63cm, whereas the average annual snowfall of the 16 years not impacted by El Niño was 1,024.69cm.
While this represents a snowfall reduction of 6.14%, the quality of a snow season for skiing doesn’t simply depend on snowfall quantity.
After all, while Niseko and Hokkaido on the whole is characterised as a “heavy snowfall area” the region doesn’t have the highest annual snow precipitation among international resorts or even in Japan.
What sets Niseko apart is the quality and consistency of the snow, which will often falls daily for weeks on end.
SnowJapan is an independent website that has collected snowfall data from multiple ski areas in Japan since 2002, and detailed information since 2012.
For the 11 seasons from 2012/13 through 2022/23, El Niño-impacted seasons, as measured by SnowJapan from a location near the base of Niseko Grand Hirafu, saw an average of just under 88 snowfall days while the non-El Niño seasons averaged a bit over 95, a reduction of 8.48%.
Snowfall is often greater at higher elevations so neither JMA’s nor SkiJapan’s data perfectly reflects Mt. Annupuri ski conditions, but the apparent conclusion is that El Niño has a rather minor effect on Niseko skiing.
And for the current season, which is during an ongoing El Niño that began in 2023, Niseko has already seen 60 snowfall days as of 2 February, while many international resorts are struggling with an almost complete lack of natural snow.
Satellite Images:
U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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